1 Isothermal Microbial Heat Inactivation
Primary Models - the Traditional Approach
The First-Order Kinetics and the D Value
The "Thermal Death Time"
Biphasic and Multiexponential Decay Models and Their Limitations
The Logistic Models
Concluding Remarks to This Section
The Survival Curve as a Cumulative Form of the Heat Distribution Resistances
The Weibull Distribution
Interpretation of the Concavity Direction
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1 Isothermal Microbial Heat Inactivation
Primary Models - the Traditional Approach
The First-Order Kinetics and the D Value
The "Thermal Death Time"
Biphasic and Multiexponential Decay Models and Their Limitations
The Logistic Models
Concluding Remarks to This Section
The Survival Curve as a Cumulative Form of the Heat Distribution Resistances
The Weibull Distribution
Interpretation of the Concavity Direction
The Fermi (Logistic) Distribution Function
The Activation shoulder
Estimation of the Number of Recoverable Spores
Sigmoid and Other Kinds of Semilogarithmic Survival Curves
Sigmoid Curves
Residual Survival (Strong "Tailing")
Can an Absolute Thermal Death Time Exist?
Secondary Models
The "z" Value and the Arrhenius Equation
The Log Logistic Model
A Discrete b(T) vs. T
Other Empirical Models
2 Nonisothermal Heat Inactivation
The Traditional Approach
The F0 Value and Its Limitations
The Proposed Alternative
Nonisothermal Weibuillian Survival
The Rate Model
Heating and Cooling
Simulation of Heating Curves by Empirical Models
Simulated Survival Curves for Processes with Different Target Temperature and Holding Durations
Temperate Oscillations
Discontinuous Temperature Profiles
The Special Case of Log Linear Isothermal Survival
Non-Weibullian Survival Models
Logistic (Fermian) Survival
Extreme Tailing
Sigmoid Survival Curves
Isothermal Survival Model's Equation with No Analytic Inverse
Independence of the Calculated Nonisothermal Survival Curve of the Chosen Survival Model
Experimental Verification of the Model
The Isothermal and Nonisothermal Inactivation Patterns of L. monocytogenes
The Isothermal and Nonisothermal Inactivation of Salmonella
Isothermal and Nonisothermal Survival Curves of B. sporothermodurans Spores in Soups
The Isothermal and Nonisothermal Inactivation of E. coli
Heat-Induced Chemical and Physical Changes
3 Generating Nonisothermal Heat Inactivation Curves with Difference Equations in Real Time (Incremental Method)
The Difference Equation of the Weibullian-Log Logistic Nonisothermal Survival Model
Non-Weibullian Survival Curves
Comparison between the Continuous and IncrementaI Models
4 Estimation of Microbial Survival Parameters from Nonisothermal Inactivation Data
The Linear Case
Linear Survival at Constant Rate Heating
Linear Survival at Varying Heating Rate
The Nonlinear Case
Weibullian-Power Law Inactivation at Arbitrary Heating Rate History
Testing the Concept with Simulated Data
Testing the Method with Salmonella Survival Data
Salmonella in a Growth Medium
Salmonella in Minced Chicken Meat
Concluding Remarks
5 Isothermal Inactivation with Stable and Dissipating Chemical Agents
Chemical Inactivation under "Constant" Agent Concentration
Microbial Inactivation with a Dissipating Chemical Agent
Traditional Models
Alternative General Model
Dissipation and Inactivation
Monotonic Agent Dissipation
Agent Dissipation with Regular and Random Oscillations
Agent Replenishment
Estimation of Survival Parameters from Data Obtained during Treatments with a Dissipating Agent
Demonstrations of the Procedure with Published Data
Discrete Version of Survival Model
6 High CO2 and Ultrahigh Hydrostatic Pressure Preservation
Microbial Inactivation under High CO2 Pressure
Effect of Pressure Level and Treatment Duration
Is the Pressurization Rate a Factor?
Ultrahigh Pressure
Ultrahigh-Pressure Treatment in a Perfectly Insulated Vessel
Treatment in an Uninsulated Vesse
How to Use the Model
7 Dose-Response Curves
The Fermi (Logistic) Distribution
The Weibull Distribution
Mixed Populations
8 Isothermal and Nonisothermal Bacterial Growth in a Closed Habitat
The Traditional Models
The Logistic Equation and the Logistic Function
The Gompertz, Baranyi and Roberts, and Other Growth Models
The Lag Time
The Logistic-Fermi Combination Model
Simulation of Nonisothermal Growth Pattern
Using the Logistic-Fermi Model
Monotonic Temperature Histories
Regular and Random Temperature Oscillations
Prediction of Nonisothermal Growth Patterns from Isothermal Growth Data
The Growth of Pseudomonas in Refrigerated Fish
The Growth of E. coli
9 Interpretation of Fluctuating Microbial Count Records in Foods and Water
Microbial Quality Control in a Food Plant
The Origins and Nature of Microbial Count Fluctuations
Asymmetry between Life and Death
Estimating the Frequency of Future Outbursts - the Principle
Testing the Counts' Independence
Uneven Rounding and Record Derounding
Choosing a Distribution Function
Nonparametric Distributions
Parametric Distributions
Calculation of a Distribution's Parameters
The Q-Q Plot
Truncated Distributions
Exinction and Absence
Special Patterns
Populations with a Detection Threshold Level
Records of Positive/Negative Entries
Records with a True or Suspected Trend or Periodicity
10 Estimating Frequencies of Future Microbial High Counts or Outbursts in Foods and Water – Case Studies
Microbial Counts in a Cheese-Based Snack
Analysis of Raw Records
Analysis of Normalized Data
Rating Raw Milk Sources
Frozen Foods
E. coli in Wash Water of a Poultry Plant
Fecal Bacteria in Lake Kinneret
Characterization of Count Distributions
Nonlogarithmic Transformations of the Counts
Finding a Truncated Distribution
Distribution of Fecal Bacteria in the Lake's Water
Estimating the Frequency of Future Outbursts
Issues of Concern
11 A Probabilistic Model of Historic Epidemics
The Model
Mortality from Smallpox and Measles in 18th Century England
Smallpox
Measles
Potential Uses of the Model
12 Aperiodic Microbial Outbursts with Variable Duration
Microbial Fluctuations in a Water Reservoir
Determination of Model Parameters
Fluctuation Parameters of the Massachusetts Water Reservoir
Validation of the Threshold Estimation Method
A Model of Pathogen Outbursts in Foods
Other Potential Applications of the Model
13 Outstanding Issues and Concluding Remarks
Inactivation Models
Determination of Survival Parameters from Inactivation Curves Determined under Nonisothermal Conditions
Modeling and Predicting Survival Patterns when Several Influential Factors Vary Simultaneously
Non-Weibullian Inactivation Patterns
Systems in which the Inoculum Size May Affect Inactivation
Robustness and Sensitivity
Relationship between Survival Parameters and Inactivation Mechanism
Alternative Inactivation Technologies
Growth Models
Terminology
Growth under Changing Conditions
Growth under Arbitrary Conditions
Simultaneous Growth and Inactivation or Inactivation and Growth
Fluctuating Records in Water and Foods
Censored Data
Sampling at Different Locations
Risk Assessment
A Few Last Remarks
References
Freeware
Index
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